Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Global warming or the oil war…!!

If you follow the debate around the energy/climate bills, drill-baby-drill opponents of this legislation are now making two claims. One is that the globe has been cooling lately, not warming, and the other is that developing countries simply can’t afford any kind of cap-and-trade/carbon tax.
But here is what they also surely believe, but are not saying: They believe the world is going to face a mass plague that will wipe out 2.5 billion people sometime between now and 2050. They believe it is much better for America that the world be dependent on oil for energy — a commodity largely controlled by countries that hate America and can only go up in price as demand increases — rather than on clean power technologies that are controlled by other countries and only go down in price as demand increases.
Yes, the opponents of any tax on carbon to stimulate alternatives to oil must believe all these things because that is the only way their arguments make any sense. There are two huge trends barreling down on us with energy implications that you simply can’t deny. And the way to renew India is for us to take the lead and invent the technologies to address these problems.
The first is that the world is getting crowded. According to the 2006 U.N. population report, “The world population will likely increase by 2.5 billion ... passing from the current 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion in 2050. This increase is equivalent to the total size of the world population in 1950, and it will be absorbed mostly by the less developed regions, whose population is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050.”
The energy, climate, water and pollution implications of adding another 2.5 billion mouths to feed, clothe, house and transport will be staggering. And this is coming, unless, as the deniers apparently believe, a global pandemic or a mass outbreak of abstinence will freeze world population — forever.
Now, add one more thing. The world keeps getting flatter — more and more people searching for job and better lifestyle. So not only are we adding 2.5 billion people by 2050, but many more will live like “Americans now” — with American-size homes, American-size cars, eating American-size Big Macs.
What happens when developing nations with soaring vehicle populations get tens of millions of petroleum-powered cars at the same time as the global economy recovers and there’s no large global oil supply overhang?” asks Felix Kramer, the electric car expert who advocates electrifying the U.S. auto fleet and increasingly powering it with renewable energy sources. What happens, of course, is that the price of oil goes through the roof — unless we develop alternatives. The petro-dictators in Iran, Venezuela and Russia hope we don’t. They would only get richer.
So either the opponents of a serious energy/climate bill with a price on carbon don’t care about our being addicted to oil and dependent on petro-dictators forever or they really believe that we will not be adding 2.5 billion more people who want to live like us, so the price of oil won’t go up very far and, therefore, we shouldn’t raise taxes to stimulate clean, renewable alternatives and energy efficiency.
You don’t believe in global warming? You’re wrong, but enjoy it until your beach house gets washed away.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

they create jobs, at least they believe...!

Fed knows more than any other organization about how to create millions of jobs, having done it in the 1960s and again in the 1980s and 1990s with blowing up experiences following the row of recessions and depression since its great independence. They also know how to stop job creation, they learned the hard way in the 1970s and the last three years. A weakening dollar and the threat of high tax rates cause small businesses to freeze….

Let’s have a look what exactly fed means by job creation.
When we say job in macroeconomics it means more production when other factors remain constant. If we keep those factors constant the unemployment rate will continue with producing more with fewer workers..

The answer lies in small businesses that take advantage of freedom, a sound currency and low tax rates. Anytime those three things are available, they hire like crazy.
In the 1970s, tax rates rose because inflation pushed US’s best producers into higher tax brackets. The tax code wasn't indexed for inflation, so it was an automatic tax hike.
Amazingly, it’s all back to 1970s again. Tax rates are scheduled to rise automatically at the end of next year, with a flood of proposals to accelerate and even increase those tax hikes. No wonder small businesses aren't hiring…
In Wednesday's Wall Street Journal, Christina Romer, chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, laid out her thinking on job creation. While the article is well-intentioned, her thrust is clear--to create jobs through government programs and public-private partnerships. Despite the massive 2009 stimulus and the Cash for Clunkers program, she correctly notes: "American businesses appear hesitant to hire and are producing more with fewer workers."
Rather than propose a stronger dollar to bring in capital, and lower top marginal tax rates to encourage private sector investment and hiring, she proposes "partnerships with the private sector," "harnessing the private sector" and techniques to "leverage scarce public funds." But no small business will increase hiring when harnessed more tightly to the government tax collector.
Deep in the article, there is a mention of small businesses, but no plan to offer them relief from their already-exorbitant tax "partnership" with Washington. Instead, Romer offers targeted Washington aid: "Others have suggested incentives to help small businesses invest, grow and create jobs. This could include measures to restore the flow of credit for small businesses and targeted tax cuts. In these types of ways, a moderate and targeted investment by the government might be leveraged into significant employment gains and purchasing power by small businesses."
Their voice is clear. Romer is advocating public-private partnerships and government jobs as America's path to lower unemployment. I am not forecasting, but I am sure, we are just in the half way, got a long way to go..!